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A clinton presidency could damage sinoamerican relations an expert warns


A LEADING expert in Asia-Pacific security has warned that a Clinton presidency may further damage relations between the United States and China.

The relationship between Beijing and Washington is already getting increasingly tense over the South China Sea, with China repeatedly warning the west to keep out of the disputed region.

Associate Professor Jingdong Yuan, who specialises in Asia-Pacific security at the University of Sydney, told news.com.au that Clintons more aggressive stance in the region could sour the relationship further.

Clinton is a known quantity but not a positive one to the Chinese, he said. There is a perception that somehow Clinton is quite critical of China and will adopt a more hawkish policy toward China after the election.

She is one of the architects of the US Pivot to Asia policy, which Beijing views as a way to keep China down if not a straight containment policy.

Dr Yuan said negative views of Clinton in China date back to 1995, when the then-First Lady gained prominence for a special speech she gave in Beijing urging the country to improve its treatment of women.

She strongly criticised China during the 1995 UN conference on women, which was held in China, he explained. Typically speakers give some slack to the host, and whats worse, Clinton ignored the fact that progress had been made for Chinese women, and the issue [was] more about where improvement can be made. She was too blunt for her hosts liking.

He also acknowledged the candidate had been very critical of Chinas internet censorship, saying this too had contributed to negative perceptions of her.

She is likely to continue and push the pivot, and that will only heighten tensions between the two countries.

However, he added that a peaceful relationship between the US and China was not out of the question.

The US foreign policy and administrations all along has been more or less pragmatic so that co-operation between the two countries is not out of the question. And both realise that they need to manage their differences lest they escalate to a situation neither side seeks or wants to see.

WIKILEAKS CLAIMS CLINTON VOWED TO RING CHINA

Wikileaks has recently released transcripts of private speeches purportedly given by Hillary Clinton, which suggest the Democratic presidential nominee is likely to take a tougher stance on China if she wins the US election.

The newly-released emails, purportedly containing the off-the-record speeches, reveal she told Goldman Sachs bankers that the United States had warned Beijing it would ring China with missile defence, unless it did more to stop North Korea.

The former secretary of state also accused Chinas military of backing the North Korean militarys provocations.

The biggest supporters of a provocative North Korea [have] been the PLA, she stated in June 4, 2013, according to Wikileaks.

The deep connections between the military leadership in China and in North Korea has really been the mainstay of the relationship.

Clinton warned that unless China did more to contain North Koreas nuclear aims, the US would build up its own missile defenses and naval forces in the region.

We all have told the Chinese if they continue to develop this missile program and they get an ICBM that has the capacity to carry a small nuclear weapon on it, which is what theyre aiming to do, we cannot abide that, she allegedly said.

Because they could not only do damage to our treaty allies, namely Japan and South Korea, but they could actually reach Hawaii and the west coast theoretically, were going to ring China with missile defense.

According to another leaked speech to Goldman Sachs in October 2013, her message to China was: You either control them, or were going to have to defend against them.

The leak says she told the audience China basically wants to control the entire South China Sea.

You cant hold that against them, she purportedly said. They have the right to assert themselves. But if nobodys there to push back to create a balance, then theyre going to have a chokehold on the sea lanes and also on the countries that border the South China Sea.

If the emails are authentic, she also attempted to argue that the United States had as much claim to the disputed region as China did, even going as far as to label it the American Sea.

I made the point at one point in the argument that, you know, you can call it whatever you want to call it. You dont have a claim to all of it. I said, by that argument, you know, the United States should claim all of the Pacific. We liberated it, we defended it.

We have as much claim to all of the Pacific. And we could call it the American Sea, and it could go from the West Coast of California all the way to the Philippines. And, you know, my counterpart sat up very straight and goes, well, you cant do that. And I said, well, we have as much right to claim that as you do, she continued, according to the text. I mean, you claim it based on pottery shards from, you know, some fishing vessel that ran aground in an atoll somewhere. You know, we had conveys of military strength. We discovered Japan for heavens sake.

The Clinton campaign has neither confirmed nor denied the authenticity of the emails.

WHAT ABOUT TRUMP?

Earlier this year, nationalist Chinese newspaper i The Global Times/i conducted an online poll which found 54 per cent of the countrys citizens would prefer a Donald Trump presidency.

But Dr Yuan said this isnt necessarily to be taken as a positive endorsement.

It is more about choosing the lesser of the two evils than a love for him, he told news.com.au. Granted, Trump is seen as someone that can [seal] the deal and less about ideologies. So perhaps there the Chinese are more confident and comfortable that given their growing economic power and the opportunities and benefits they can offer, they can cut deals with Trump and in the process blunt some of the edges of a more hawkish US foreign policy toward China.

But obviously, opinion polls do not represent what the Chinese government thinks and the real test will come in the first six months after the US elections.

Lastly, he warned China will not easily bow to pressure, regardless of who wins the election.

One thing is for sure, it is unlikely the Beijing will show signs of weakness or compromise as the Chinese Communist Party is preparing to select the next generation of leaders in late 2016 and 2017, and (President Xi Jinping) has a lot of stakes in the game.

Analysis why this is a clever federal budget




ANALYSIS

DONT look for winners and losers, Treasurer Scott Morrison told reporters just before he delivered the Budget in Parliament.

The very notion someone might emerge from the Budget with less than they deserved was folly, he seemed to be saying.

We are all winners under the protective gaze of poppa Scott.

It was a clever document the Treasurer delivered without a trace of embarrassment over the number of measures Labor had come up with first to gales of derision.

They included increased tobacco excise, belting transnationals for their correct tax payments, and taking tax concessions from superannuation account holders who didnt need them.

In fact, the marquee elements of the Morrison plan for the economy were borrowed from the Labor Opposition.

Even after the revenue from those measures were turned into tax cuts elsewhere, the Coalitions0 claim to be low-tax fanatics still didnt look solid.

Government revenue will continue to rise, from 24.2 per cent of GDP now to 25.9 per cent in 2019-20.

And all those big boofy promises, from huge dams in northern Australia to construction of inland rail, were actually conditional on others doing the spending.

The Government was merely the interested facilitator with no commitments to much forward spending.

But it is a clever Budget skilfully prepared, and it will help the Government in the looming election contest where it will hold it high as an emblem of its claim to economic management superiority over Labor.

It is a Budget about reassurance.

In a period that has seen four prime ministers in three years and an economic transformation creating jitters in many households, Scott Morrison is offering stability.

His Budget punts on the hope voters are tired of economic miracle cures and fiscal razzle-dazzle and just want political leaders to get the basics right.

That means giving tax cuts to those who would use them productively and not to fringe claimants, and giving an old-fashioned priority to jobs over indulgences.

Voters know public spending has to be repaired. They just want it done with a minimum of tears.

And thats where poppa Scott comes in a comforting, confident and not very scary custodian of the Budget and the future of our employment and pay packets.

He is the quieter contrast to the boisterous modernism of Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull.

Much of what the Treasurer promises in the Budget will have losers.

The National Disability Insurance Scheme will have to endure a funding cut before around $1 billion can be raised for it a few years down the track. Mr Morrison says the money just isnt there at the moment.

And the young unemployed could face enforced internships, with no guaranteed paid outcomes, under the strangely named PaTH scheme Mr Morrison has proposed.

But the winners, he estimates, will be the middle income earners and the dynamic small business proprietors who, he hopes, will spread the love. At the election. Without claiming to be winners, of course.